Pig prices forecast to remain high until the first quarter of 2025

The price of live pigs in Dong Nai and the Southeast provinces is currently above 60,000 VND/kg. It is forecasted that the price of live pigs will fluctuate at an acceptable level until early next year.

For pig farmers, the current price of over 60,000 VND/kg is acceptable because it ensures farmers a certain profit. Photo: Son Trang.

Due to the low consumption period, in the first half of August, the price of live pigs in the Southeast continued to decrease. On August 13, the price of live pigs in this region was around 63,000 VND/kg, down more than 3,000 VND/kg compared to the average price in July, but compared to the same period last year, the current price of live pigs is higher by more than 4,000 VND/kg.

Thus, the price of live pigs has been on a downward trend since July. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in July, the price of live pigs nationwide tended to decrease compared to June, fluctuating between 62,000 – 66,000 VND/kg.

Specifically, in July, the price of live pigs in the Northern region fluctuated between 64,000 – 66,000 VND/kg, down 2,000 – 3,000 VND/kg compared to the end of June. In the Central and Central Highlands regions, the price of live pigs fluctuated between 62,000 – 65,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 – 2,000 VND/kg compared to the end of June. In the Southern region, the price of live pigs fluctuated between 62,000 – 66,000 VND/kg, down 2,000 – 4,000 VND/kg compared to the end of June.

Although the price of live pigs is on a downward trend, for pig farmers, the current price of over 60,000 VND/kg is acceptable because it ensures farmers a certain profit. What pig farmers are concerned about is what the price of live pigs will be in the remaining months of the year.

According to experts from Maybank IBG Research, pig prices may continue to increase in the coming time, but the increase will not be as strong as in the first 5 months of the year. Photo: Son Trang.

According to Mr. Nguyen Tri Cong, Chairman of Dong Nai Livestock Association, in 2023, the low price of live pigs has affected the herd restoration in many farms and households. This year, the complicated epidemic situation has also caused pig output to continue to decline. Up to now, although the epidemic is gradually being controlled, the loss has been significant. It is estimated that the decrease in live pig output in Dong Nai could be up to 20%.

Due to the sharp decline in output, combined with the high price of live pigs in surrounding countries (live pig prices in Laos and Thailand are approximately 60,000 VND/kg, live pig prices in China are currently around 70,000 VND/kg), Mr. Cong predicts that the price of live pigs in Dong Nai in the coming time, if there is a decrease, will not fall below 60,000 VND/kg. At the same time, Mr. Cong also said that from now until the first quarter of 2025, the price of live pigs will fluctuate between over 60,000 VND and under 70,000 VND/kg.

The decrease in imported pork this year also contributed to the increase in domestic pig prices. According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam imported 11,450 tons of pork, worth 25.98 million USD, down 12.5% ​​in volume and 18.9% in value compared to the same period in 2023.

In the second quarter, pork imports increased sharply compared to the first quarter, reaching 27,000 tons, worth 60.69 million USD (up 99.6% in volume and 99.5% in value compared to the first quarter of 2024), but down 0.1% in volume and down 16.3% in value compared to the second quarter of 2023. In the first 6 months of the year, the amount of imported pork decreased significantly compared to the same period last year.

The Analysis Center of Tien Phong Securities Joint Stock Company commented that pig prices tend to increase due to greater demand in the context of the supply not being restored in time after the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic. Currently, many businesses and small-scale farmers are in the process of restoring their herds after the ASF epidemic and it will take at least until December 2024 for new supply to reach the market.

According to experts from Maybank IBG Research, pig prices may continue to increase in the coming time, but the increase will not be as strong as in the first 5 months of the year. In the short term, pig prices may be supported by reduced supply due to losses of small-scale producers and disease outbreaks.

Pig prices in many Asian countries are currently high. According to Genesus’s Global Market Report, on August 7, pig prices in China were equivalent to more than VND 72,000/kg, in the Philippines were equivalent to more than VND 74,000/kg, and in South Korea were equivalent to nearly VND 95,000/kg.

Son Trang
Source: nongnghiep.vn

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